Jan 18 2007
Global Warming and Biodiversity
For those with access to view full articles on Sciencemag.com or can read they physical journal, an article by Araújo and Rahbek titled How Does Climate Change Affect Biodiversity?
This study attempts to use a bioclimatic model to understand and predict how a changing climate will affect the distribution of two bird species. I’m no expert on ecology or biology, but I have had some experience with climate models. I know that plain vanilla climate models are very complex, and if you attempt to combine a species distribution model on top of it, the results could be painfully wrong. They have a nice figure of observed and predicted distributions from a hindcast they did that shows this nicely. Because they were hindcasting, they didn’t even need to use a climate model, they could have just used observations. The article doesn’t mention land use change as being a part of the model, and I bet if it was included it would change the results - by how much, I don’t know.
Anyway, I thought this was an interesting article.
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