Aug 14 2007
Climate Prediction
I can’t let Tamino have all the fun with climate speculations. But I will post the same disclaimer:
Just to have a little fun, and JUST AS AN EXERCISE, I’ll make my own detailed forecast of the next decade or so. NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN EXERCISE FOR FUN, I DON’T ACTUALLY BELIEVE MY OWN FORECAST.
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The two peaks in the prediction (green curve) are ENSO events. As far as I’m aware, nobody is capable of skillfully predicting ENSO that far into the future. I don’t actually think there will be two strong El Ninos between now and 2015, but I do think there will be one. Think of the bumps more as a probability density function of when the ENSO events might occur, with the greatest likelyhood being from 2012-2014.
I am predicting that the current trend will stay constant over the decade or so. But how can that be, since your predicted green curve is almost exclusively above the blue trend line? Bah humbug I say to you. I cut off the graph at 2015, like Tamino. Had I extended it further, the green line would have been under the blue trend for a few years. Keep in mind that there is no physical reason why I predicted the green line. I did not use a global circulation model. I simply continued the current trend and added a likely El Nino, and hoped there wouldn’t be a large volcanic eruption.
When 2013 comes around, we’ll see how accurate my “forecast” is. I’m betting I’ll have forgotten about it, so someone remind me, okay?
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