Sep 20 2007
Are Most Conclusions Published in Journals Wrong?
Via Climate Audit
Despite the fact that this paper is two years old, it’s getting tossed around now like it’s breaking news. Courtesy WSJ, of course. Can You Believe What Scientists Publish? by Jacob Goldstein and Most Science Studies Appear to Be Tainted By Sloppy Analysis by Robert Lee Hotz. The original paper is Why Most Published Research Findings Are False [Ioannidis, 2005].
Firstly, this paper is published in PLoS Medicine which should give a hint to its subject matter. If a paper was published in Science or Nature it might be interesting. As it stands, this paper is related only to the medical field.
Paraphrasing one of the comments on the PLoS site: If over half of the studies published are wrong, then odds are this one is too. And that means that half of the studies published aren’t wrong. But would that mean this study was right? I like the apparent paradox there.
Anyway, I’d be willing to wager than most of the conclusions published in peer-reviewed journals are not wrong. Not wager a lot mind you, I don’t have much disposable income.
References:
Ioannidis, J.P.A., (2005), Why Most Published Research Findings Are False, PLoS Medicine Vol. 2, No. 8, e124 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
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