Oct 21 2007

Responding to a Defeatist

Published under Climate Change

From Inel: Please tell me how you would answer Beverley’s comment … Original item in italics.

We are watching the arctic and antarctic melting.
Since the northern hemisphere is now entering winter, the arctic is freezing. But the long term trends has been a decline in sea ice. However, there has been no corresponding loss of sea ice in the antarctic, see the current southern hemisphere sea ice anomaly. For what it’s worth, the loss of sea ice does not affect sea level.

We are experiencing big changes in our weather, flooding[,] hotter and longer summers, fires where they never were before due to droughts.
See below.

We seem afraid to say the dirty word, “global warming” when this “different” weather is being described.
And naturally so! From realclimate, “is that there is no way to prove that [a single weather event] either was, or was not, affected by global warming. For a single event, regardless of how extreme, such attribution is fundamentally impossible. We only have one Earth, and it will follow only one of an infinite number of possible weather sequences. It is impossible to know whether or not this event would have taken place if we had not increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as much as we have. Weather events will always result from a combination of deterministic factors (including greenhouse gas forcing or slow natural climate cycles) and stochastic factors (pure chance).”

I get mail and e-mail pleading for money to “Save the Polar Bears”.
Send your money if you want. But I get e-mail pleading for money to enlarge my penis too.

Can anyone tell me HOW, in real life[,] that can be accomplished?
I’m assuming you mean “saving the polar bears” right? I don’t know. But I assume lowering the global temperature would be a good start.

We not only CANNOT suddenly stop driving our gasoline powered cars and CAN’T suddenly convert the world to non-polluting industries.
I reject your premise. See what California did with the electric car. 100% electric cars were made and driven OVER 10 YEARS AGO! Actually, electric cars were around before the gasoline car, but that’s a different story. We can stop driving gasoline powered cars. Industry does not have to pollute the environment. A defeatist attitude won’t accomplish anything.

We are and have been further delayed due to “big business” and government interests which deal in their short term interests rather than long term which might “jeopardize the economy” (Bush’s words, I believe!).
Sure. But so what? Big Business has always favored the status quo. Business will adapt so that they make the most money.

When you face the facts, we are doomed to creating more carbon dioxide as humans can’t, haven’t and won’t eliminate the problem of global warming in time.
Predicting the future based on your ‘gut’ feelings isn’t very scientific. I’m inclined to simply dismiss this comment unless you can offer some sort of citation.

The polar bears are without a single doubt, doomed.
Maybe. Polar bears aren’t my thing. But USGS says that “[f]uture loss of Arctic sea ice could result in a loss of 2/3 of the world’s polar bears within 50 years.” My thoughts: polar bears are just one species that is threatened by climate change. By continuing to emphasize the loss of one species, we are ignoring the many other species that face extinction due to global climate change.

There is no way that we can suddenly reverse the effects of global warming
Yes there is! Even according the James Hansen there is still time to act. Hansen is probably the most outspoken scientist with respect to climate change, and is labeled by many as alarmist. The planet is warming, but the consequences from this warming can be minimized according to Hansen.

We have absolutely no way to stop the ice at the poles from melting.
Sure we do. See link above.

In time Florida and all low lying coastal areas world wide WILL be under water.
They most certainly will. But what is the time scale? The mean sea level is rising by roughly 3 millimeters (one tenth of an inch) per year (realclimate). If the rate of sea level rise continues, after 100 years it will be 0.3 meters (1 foot) higher than it is now. During the last interglacial period, the estimated sea level rise was 10 millimeters per year (ibid., and Overpeck et al.). In 100 years, this would produce a sea level rise of 1 meter (~3 feet). This is a huge amount, don’t get me wrong. And if the entire Greenland ice sheet melts, the amount of sea level rise will be greater. But it takes time for this to occur.

Droughts, fires, (which will and are adding still more co2 to the atmosphere), floods, hurricanes and tornadoes WILL increase.
The number of hurricanes is not projected to increase; their intensity may increase (see realclimate link above). I have not seen any studies which relate tornadoes to global warming. I have seen studies which predict droughts, fires, and floods will increase.

We ARE already experiencing the beginning effects of global warming.
The effects of global warming have been seen since about the 1980s. They were predicted much earlier than that. The fact that the public is just recognizing the fact now is a commentary on how well the media (and scientists!) report science news to the public.

We have a compounded problem here, as when land becomes more and more uninhabitable, human beings will be forced to move into the remaining shrinking inhabitable spaces.
Loss of habitat may become a problem, and is related to…

We have done nothing to reduce human population, (actually, China with “one child only” has made an attempt) so more wars are inevitable as man fights over possesion of inhabitable land.
The rapid increase in human population is a problem.

Can anyone tell me that I am wrong in my observations? I doubt it.
Yes.

Al Gore and scientists can be commended for enlightening us about global warming, but I cannot see how in reallity our poor old world can be saved.
Just because you cannot understand how something can be done to “save the world” doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. The is the same logical falacy that is used against evolution - “I don’t understand it, so it must not be true.”

It is already too late.
NO IT ISN’T! See above.

We are already in the downward spiral, global warming which will be impossible to reverse.
Same as above. NO IT ISN’T! See above.

(I am not, by nature[,] a negative person, just practical!)
From the nature of your comments above, I would disagree.

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  • 2 Responses to “Responding to a Defeatist”

    1. inelon 21 Oct 2007 at 11:52 am

      Thank you so much for responding, N. Johnson! (Or would you prefer me to call you Atmoz?)
      [Response: Either is fine. As is N.J. or really any other non-offensive term - even 'Hey you!']

      As you can tell from my long-winded post, I will get around to answering all B’s points in my own way, and will try to get the answers posted at RealClimate in a comment as soon as I emerge from the extended birthday sleepover (aka wakeover) at our house this week!

      I am particularly concerned that defeatism is based on poor information, and an overload of apocalyptic messages. Anyone who has ever registered for email updated from some of the environmental organisations will know what I am talking about. I renewed my updates with one organisation (which will remain nameless) recently, and can see where many caring people are getting their dismal world views from: these are not AGW contrarians who now deny action to combat climate change, on the basis that we are too late.

      I am concerned about ordinary folk who are getting the message that we have passed the tipping points for runaway damage and they have basically given up hope, which means they see no point in taking action. That bothers me.

      Thanks for your input!

      P.S. (My husband gets those emails too.)

    2. kent beucherton 21 Oct 2007 at 1:41 pm

      The Earth ain’t going to become unlivable if we get a few degrees warmer, you morons. Al Gore’s film is a pack of lies and was made to excite the public. The big danger is getting too cold, not too warm. Too cold and the earth can’t grow enough food and starvations will occur. Al Gore’s sea levels lie has been documented several times. The sea levels ARE NOT going to rise the 20 feet Al Gore mentioned in the film. More like 20 INCHES,which wouldn’t mean squat. And do you global warming liars realize that the Antarctic acheived a new all-time MAXIMUM ice thickness a few months ago?

      [Ed: The preceding comment is the sole opinion of the commenter. This website does not endore the uncited claims made within. Readers will receive one point (worth nothing except the pride of finding a citation) for each citation either proving or disproving claims made above.]

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