Comments on: Arctic Ocean Ice Free in 2008? http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/04/28/arctic-ocean-ice-free-in-2008/ Chat about the Atmozpheric Sciences Thu, 28 Aug 2008 12:34:44 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Nothern Hemisphere Sea Ice: How’s it going? | The Blackboard http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/04/28/arctic-ocean-ice-free-in-2008/#comment-3066 Nothern Hemisphere Sea Ice: How’s it going? | The Blackboard Thu, 03 Jul 2008 15:10:43 +0000 http://atmoz.org/blog/?p=523#comment-3066 [...] course, we amateurs were out of the gates long before the experts. Prodded by the indefatigable Atmoz, we placed our bets in April! (I think we can claim “international effort” and [...] [...] course, we amateurs were out of the gates long before the experts. Prodded by the indefatigable Atmoz, we placed our bets in April! (I think we can claim “international effort” and [...]

]]> By: Henry http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/04/28/arctic-ocean-ice-free-in-2008/#comment-2984 Henry Mon, 23 Jun 2008 13:04:22 +0000 http://atmoz.org/blog/?p=523#comment-2984 I think the problems the experts have is that they are looking at an arithmatic progression but with all the possitive feedback it is more of a geometric progression. That why each year they are shocked by the melt. What was it, 18 months ago the U.N. panel of over a hundred experts thought it would be the end of the century before there was an ice free arctic? My guess is five hundred thousand square miles or less. Substancially ice free by the end of summer. I hope, I am wrong! My thought is based on the thin ice not the ice cover. I beleive as it begins to melt, the water will melt it from below as fast as the sun does from above and that the small amount of old ice will flush out on Greenland's east coast. So you are left with new ice melting on both side (no way it can last). I think the problems the experts have is that they are looking at an arithmatic progression but with all the possitive feedback it is more of a geometric progression. That why each year they are shocked by the melt. What was it, 18 months ago the U.N. panel of over a hundred experts thought it would be the end of the century before there was an ice free arctic?

My guess is five hundred thousand square miles or less. Substancially ice free by the end of summer. I hope, I am wrong! My thought is based on the thin ice not the ice cover. I beleive as it begins to melt, the water will melt it from below as fast as the sun does from above and that the small amount of old ice will flush out on Greenland’s east coast. So you are left with new ice melting on both side (no way it can last).

]]> By: Eli Rabett http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/04/28/arctic-ocean-ice-free-in-2008/#comment-2517 Eli Rabett Sat, 03 May 2008 03:24:11 +0000 http://atmoz.org/blog/?p=523#comment-2517 The point is that there is an important memory effect associated with sea ice. If relatively little is left after the summer, you are skating on thin ice the next year. Thus, a linear extrapolation such as Atmoz has done, makes little sense. The point is that there is an important memory effect associated with sea ice. If relatively little is left after the summer, you are skating on thin ice the next year. Thus, a linear extrapolation such as Atmoz has done, makes little sense.

]]> By: Steve Bloom http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/04/28/arctic-ocean-ice-free-in-2008/#comment-2508 Steve Bloom Fri, 02 May 2008 06:51:50 +0000 http://atmoz.org/blog/?p=523#comment-2508 Phil, that just involves their new daily product. CT has that issue plus others. Also, I see that over on Lucia's site some lunatic went for 2.5. That still gives me a win with anything from 3.5 to 4.49, so I'll stick with what I have. Phil, that just involves their new daily product. CT has that issue plus others.

Also, I see that over on Lucia’s site some lunatic went for 2.5. That still gives me a win with anything from 3.5 to 4.49, so I’ll stick with what I have.

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