Author: Nathan Johnson
My name is Nathan Johnson and I have a Masters degree in Meteorology. I also snowboard and live in Boulder, Colorado.I have a strong desire to see precise, accurate snow forecasts. It is my hope that independent validation and verification leads to better forecasts.

Obsession with Copper

I look a lot at Copper. The main reason is that I originally started collecting data at Copper and therefore have a lot more data there. I added other resorts later. When looking at statistics, it’s useful to look at

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Review of last week’s storm

[Correction: I was accidentally pulling data from that was in centimeters and not inches. Needless to say, this means there forecasts were actually the value below divided by 2.54. Or way wrong. They predicted zero out of 4 days correctly.

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Crested Butte Stats

I tweaked the way I calculate whether a particular forecast is a bust. I decided I was being a little too hard on the forecasters. For example, a forecast of 4″ with a reported snowfall of 6″ would have counted

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Happy Eldora Day!

Eldora Mountain Resort opened today. Which means that I can now take the bus to go boarding. Woot! In honor of that, I’m dedicating this post entirely to Eldora. First, let’s look at the error distribution from the forecasts at

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Turkey Pow

I’m stealing this headline from Opensnow because I like it. I’m still in the process of adding a method to a WordPress plugin to display error histograms on the resort pages. It’s actually relatively easy to do in theory, but

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Lies, Damned Lies, and… Snowstats?

I was involved in a discussion on Opensnow yesterday. It started with a comment from “gman” that said: “Colorado River Basin SWE at 95% of average as of right now (averaged from all SNOTEL sites). What a great start to

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Copper storm totals 11/10-11/15

This last week has seen a lot of snow fall over the state. Almost all forecasts from all the sources I look at under-predicted. Not only did they under-predict storm totals, they under-predicted almost every single day! I’m going to

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Yesterday at Copper

Copper got hammered yesterday! That was expected, but they got a lot more snow than predicted. The National Weather Service predicted that Copper would receive 7.28″ of snow and Opensnow predicted 4-8″ (with an average of 6″, obviously). Other resorts

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Yesterday saw a lot of snow for many of the resorts. Unfortunately, it wasn’t well forecast. Another bummer is that snocountry only reports data for open resorts. That mean we only have measured totals from Arapahoe basin, Copper Mountain, Keystone,

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Snowstats 2014-2015

I’ve started the cron jobs for snowfall tracking! #snowstats What does this mean? It means I’m reading for winter.

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