Crested Butte Stats

I tweaked the way I calculate whether a particular forecast is a bust. I decided I was being a little too hard on the forecasters. For example, a forecast of 4″ with a reported snowfall of 6″ would have counted as a bust. Being off by 50% is still a lot, but for this particular example, it’s not a big deal.

crested_butte_error_distribution Crested Butte opens in 2 days! The table below represents the latest bust percentages at that resort.

Busted Forecasts at Crested Butte

NWS: 38%

Opensnow: 31%

Snowforecast: 30% 50%

Snow-forecast: 46%

Error distributions are shown to the right. and are clearly the worst snow forecasters. They both have a high bust percentage and huge outliers. is weird. They tend to either vastly over-predict or vastly-underpredict.

NWS tends to under-predict, but not by that much. Opensnow tends to over-predict, but not by that much. has busted forecasts at the same rate as NWS and Opensnow, but there a few under-prediction outliers.

Based on the data collected so far, Opensnow is the best snow forecaster at Crested Butte, but the NWS isn’t far behind.

My name is Nathan Johnson and I have a Masters degree in Meteorology. I also snowboard and live in Boulder, Colorado.I have a strong desire to see precise, accurate snow forecasts. It is my hope that independent validation and verification leads to better forecasts.

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