I tweaked the way I calculate whether a particular forecast is a bust. I decided I was being a little too hard on the forecasters. For example, a forecast of 4″ with a reported snowfall of 6″ would have counted as a bust. Being off by 50% is still a lot, but for this particular example, it’s not a big deal.
Busted Forecasts at Crested Butte
Error distributions are shown to the right. Forecast.io and Snow-forecast.com are clearly the worst snow forecasters. They both have a high bust percentage and huge outliers. Snow-forecast.com is weird. They tend to either vastly over-predict or vastly-underpredict.
NWS tends to under-predict, but not by that much. Opensnow tends to over-predict, but not by that much. Snowforecast.com has busted forecasts at the same rate as NWS and Opensnow, but there a few under-prediction outliers.
Based on the data collected so far, Opensnow is the best snow forecaster at Crested Butte, but the NWS isn’t far behind.